Schedule & Results
Spread rating update
Runs as soon as a game is final and the closing spread is available. It predicts the team-level residual in the next game's closing spread after removing home-field advantage and the market's rolling six-week team ratings.
- Final scoring margin
- Closing spread and ATS margin
- Closing spread magnitude
- Close-game indicator
- Play-by-play excluded after failing the 2025 incremental holdout
Verified target: next-game closing-spread market innovation after removing 2.5 points of home field and both teams' rolling six-week market ratings.
PROJECTED MARKET VALUE: Spreads use a validated two-tier actionable-versus-neutral display. Three colors were not forced because locked 2025 positive-CLV rates were not monotonic.
Total update
Runs after complete PBP is available and garbage-time filtering succeeds. It predicts the next game's closing-total innovation versus the rolling market-implied offense and defense baseline.
- Pregame total and final-score surprise
- Garbage-time-filtered PBP from both teams
- Offensive and defensive performance signals
- Reprojects the teams’ next-game total
Verified target: next-game closing-total innovation versus the rolling market-implied offense/defense baseline.
PROJECTED MARKET VALUE: Total green/yellow/red tiers use 2024-selected thresholds and were monotonic on locked 2025 closing-line value.
2026 tracking and recalibration
Tier selection is gated by average CLV, positive-CLV rate, sample stability, and consistency by week and season stage. MAE, median error, Shadow-versus-current probability, ATS results, and ROI remain diagnostics.
Color ranks the Shadow edge by historically observed closing-line value. It does not indicate projection certainty or expected game-result accuracy.
| Model | 2025 holdout | 2026 live tracking | Application |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spread | Loading… | No 2026 finals yet | Shadow only |
| Total | Loading… | No 2026 PBP finals yet | Shadow only |
Live scores, closing-line value, Saturday impacts, and next-game projection readiness.
| Matchup | Live Score | Spread / ATS | Total / O-U | Spread Impact | Total Impact | Next Week | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading schedule… |